Market responds positively to Stripe, Advent bid for PayPal

In a proposed deal first reported by Reuters, two of the best-known names in online payments are set to combine. If the deal comes to pass, it will represent one of the biggest moves the industry has witnessed in recent years. Any such deal would immediately bring major challenges, not least regulatory.

PayPal retains a stellar brand but its share price performance in the past five years has been dismal, losing over 80%. Five years ago, the PayPal share price was almost $300. News of the possible Stripe, Advent deal resulted in the share price rising by almost 20% to $55.

As noted last month, among the largest 20 global payment companies, PayPal was the most notable underperformer, with revenue growth of only 4.3%.

The company processes over $1.5tn in payment volume annually, yet revenue barely tracks inflation. The problem is structural: PayPal remains heavily exposed to e-commerce checkout, a market where competition from Apple Pay, Shop Pay, and card-linked offers has intensified. Management’s pivot toward advertising and BNPL (buy now, pay later) integrations has yet to move the needle materially.

Initial market reaction to the proposed Stripe deal is however positive.

Chris Jones, Managing Director at PSE Consulting

This is a deal that’s been rumoured for months, and now it’s moved a lot closer to reality. If it lands, it would be one of the biggest moves the payments industry has seen in years – a fascinating combination of a consumer-facing giant in PayPal and a B2B-focused infrastructure powerhouse in Stripe.
If completed, the transaction would bring together two heavyweights of the eCommerce world: PayPal, the industry’s most successful consumer wallet, with 440 million active accounts and $1.8tn of payment volume in 2025, and Stripe, its most successful gateway, which processed $1.9tn in the same year – a figure equivalent to around 1.6% of global GDP and a substantial share of global eCommerce spend.

From a transaction volume perspective, the combined group would handle some $3.7tn annually, putting it on a par with the newly combined Global Payments and Worldpay, the largest merchant acquirer in the world.
Alongside the scale benefits there is also clear strategic logic. PayPal’s wallet could build on the early success of Link, Stripe’s consumer-facing accelerated checkout, which already counts more than 200 million consumer accounts, and would create further opportunities to exploit Stripe’s $1.1bn investment in stablecoin infrastructure through its purchase of Bridge. Put Link and the PayPal wallet together and you’re looking at genuinely enormous reach at checkout – one of the largest combined pools of stored payment credentials anywhere in the world. That’s not a small thing in a market where reducing checkout friction is the whole game.
There are challenges too. The overlap between Stripe’s core gateway business and PayPal’s Braintree offering would need careful handling, as merchants are understandably nervous of platform migration. There’s also the task of injecting Stripe’s renowned engineering culture into a large, complex product estate serving 440 million consumers, at a pace that keeps both franchises moving forward.
At $53bn and a 28% premium, the price tag reflects just how much strategic value is on the table here. We believe the proposed combination would be the boldest reshaping of the eCommerce landscape in a decade.

Oscar Asly, Global CEO of M4Markets

I’ve spent much of my career around payments, trading and digital assets, and the lesson is that adoption rarely comes from asking people to understand the technology. It happens when the technology disappears into products they already use. Stripe brings deep merchant integration and stablecoin infrastructure; PayPal brings an enormous consumer wallet network, Venmo and PYUSD. Combined, they could make paying with crypto feel far more ordinary. That would support Bitcoin indirectly, because every familiar platform that makes digital assets easier to hold, transfer or spend lowers the barrier to the wider market.

I would be cautious about assuming that scale automatically creates adoption, though. This would involve combining two vast and complicated payments systems while regulators examine competition, consumer protection, anti-money-laundering controls, custody and stablecoins across numerous jurisdictions. Merchants will only care if settlement is reliable, fees are competitive and volatility stays out of their accounts. The real opportunity is largely invisible: consumers pay through a digital wallet, merchants receive the currency they want, and neither has to think too much about the crypto infrastructure underneath.

Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG

PayPal is one of those stocks that never lived up to its hype. It promised much but never seemed to find its footing post-Covid. It’s not alone in this, but for a company that was so ubiquitous for years, and which still owns a broad stable of brands, such underperformance is disappointing at best. Long-suffering shareholders finally get some relief, as the bid that was so long expected finally arrives.