Growth forecasts for m-payments may have been too optimistic, a report on global payments has warned.

The World Payments Report 2013, by Capgemini and RBS, said that industry analysts may have over-estimated the growth of electronic and mobile payments. The report said that, on analysis of 2012 data, there were large gaps between estimates and actual transactions.

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Phil Gomm, director of banking, cards and payments at Capgemini Australia, said: "We are questioning some of the assumptions that the analysts have made.

"The analysts have over-anticipated just how long it is going to take us to get pervasive near-field-communication [NFC] technology to the point of sale. They think it is going to happen a lot faster, whereas we see a much slower curve."

Industry expectations are that m-payment transactions will grow 58.5% annually to 28.9bn transactions in 2014, and e-payments are expected to grow by 18.1% yearly in the same period to a total of 34.8bn transactions.

However, analysis of leading players in both payment sectors tells a different story. Once all the major players are accounted for, actual volumes of e-payments fall short of the estimate by 16%, while for m-payments the gap is a massive 50%.

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Although the report admits that it does not have figures for smaller players, it warns that some of this gap may well result from over-optimism on the part of industry analysts.

In recent years, increased penetration of smartphones and internet has driven growth, along with more optimistic forecasts. Gomm said: "I am not a strong supporter that NFC is going to support the uptake [of m-payments].

"It is more about being able to initiate a transaction when you are nowhere near a point of sale device."

 

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