UK telecommunications research company Juniper has published revised forecasts for the global NFC market, significantly lowering its estimates for take up in the North American and Western European markets.
Although the report found that by 2017 the proportion of NFC enabled Smartphones was only marginally below previous estimates, the global NFC retail transaction values are now expected to reach USD110bn in 2017, significantly less than the USD180bn previously forecast.
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Juniper’s report suggested that Apple’s decision to omit an NFC chipset from the iPhone 5 has reduced retailer and brand confidence in the technology. The research found that, as a result, there have been fewer rollouts and NFC campaigns. Consumers would have less NFC visibility and opportunities to make payments would be more restricted, threatening a cycle of "NFC indifference" in the short-term.
Windsor Holden, the report’s author, said: "While many vendors have introduced NFC-enabled smartphones, Apple’s decision is a significant blow for the technology, particularly given its previous successes in educating the wider public about new mobile services. Without their support, it will be even more difficult to persuade consumers – and retailers – to embrace what amounts to a wholly new means of payment."
The report also stated that the South Korean and Japanese markets are expected to be unaffected and that NFC trial customer feedback remained high, which Juniper believed would result in strong latent interest when systems are widely deployed.
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