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July 29, 2009

Drop in delinquencies is good news

It would appear so following the latest report from credit ratings agency Fitch, which has reported that US delinquency levels are receding from previous highs

By Verdict Staff

Is the US card industry finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel? It would appear so following the latest report from credit ratings agency Fitch, which has reported that US delinquency levels are receding from previous highs. However, issuers shouldn’t jump for joy just yet, as Charles Davis reports.

 

The US card market, desperate for any good economic news, finally received some this month. For the first time this year, Fitch Ratings reported that delinquent receivables in US credit card portfolios receded from their month-earlier levels.

The news is even brighter when one realises that the improvement snaps a string of four straight record highs for delinquencies and could result in lower or stabilising charge-offs in the coming months, according to the latest Credit Card Index results from Fitch Ratings.

“At this point, any sign of a pullback from the rate of acceleration in delinquencies is welcome news,” said Fitch managing director Michael Dean. “Whether it develops into a trend remains to be seen and since it will take time to work through, we expect continued increases in charge-offs over the next few months.”

Mixed signals

Fitch said that despite the anticipated worsening performance, the current ratings of senior tranches are expected to remain stable given available credit enhancement and structural protections afforded investors. The outlook for subordinate tranches, however, has become increasingly negative, particularly given excess spreads, charge-offs and personal bankruptcy filing trends.

Despite declining for the first time in five months, delinquencies remain elevated near record levels and nearly 40 percent above year-earlier rates. For the month, Fitch’s delinquency index, which measures receivables more than 60 days past due, declined 7 basis points to 4.4 percent.

The delinquency results are brighter, but it is worth noting that they come as charge-offs set new record highs and excess spreads contracted further. Fitch’s Prime Credit Card Charge-off Index climbed 77 basis points to reach 9.7 percent, the third consecutive record result. The index is now 51 percent above year-earlier levels.

Three-month average excess spreads meanwhile narrowed to 5.3 percent. Excluding the effect of the bankruptcy spike in 2005, excess spread levels have not been this low since early 2001. The compression in excess spreads is being driven by both a decline in gross yield and an increase in charge-offs. Funding costs, largely determined by one-month US dollar LIBOR rates, have remained low. Fitch expects further compression in the three-month average excess spread, as the one-month measurement declined to 4.4 percent.

Over the last 24 months, the prime rate has dropped 500 basis points to 3.3 percent, while gross yield has declined by only 122 basis points.

“This resiliency is partially attributable to the significance of fee income relative to interest income in recent years, however, it also reflects the effectiveness of the pricing actions that many card issuers have taken in advance of regulatory and legislative changes,” said Fitch. “The incremental yield generation, while robust, is not substantial enough to completely offset the increase in charge-offs, which have more than doubled during the same two-year period, surging 503 basis points, from 4.6 percent to 9.7 percent.”

Charge-offs remain a cause for concern

The US cards market might be relieved by the delinquency slowdown, but charge-offs are a longer-term worry. Fitch expects charge-offs to exceed 10 percent over the next few months, and to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2010, when unemployment is expected to peak. However, the recent improvement in the delinquency rate could foreshadow a peak in charge-offs later this year instead, Fitch said. A further rise in bankruptcy filings could compromise this outcome, as weekly levels are approaching volumes not seen since early 2005.

Monthly payments rates have exhibited some fairly typical seasonal volatility early this year, but are now hovering around 17 percent. Though not as strong as the 20 percent payment rates frequently observed over the last few years when consumers were spending liberally and could bail themselves out by tapping home equity, payment rates are still in excess of the 16 percent average since the inception of the index in 1991.

The improved delinquency numbers are reflected in the master trusts of Bank of America (BofA), Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, as well as some of the larger regional issuers, but the big question is when charge-offs will begin to slow down as well.

Fitch thinks that the steady increases in consumer-debt default ratios – the other side of the charge-off equation, along with delinquencies – are likely to keep charge-off ratios elevated for the remainder of the year. Bankruptcy filings are the real wild card – no one can predict them with any accuracy.

Charge-offs at big issuers still on the rise

A glance at the May numbers for the three biggest US issuers tells the tale. A case in point is BofA, where the charge-off ratio jumped from just under 10.5 percent to 12.5 percent. Charge-offs rose to 10.5 percent from 10.2 percent at Citi and to 8.36 percent from less than 8.1 percent at JPMorgan Chase.

BofA also has had the highest delinquency rate among the three banks, with 7.95 percent of accounts running more than 30 days overdue, compared with 4.52 percent at JPMorgan Chase and 5.58 percent at Citi. The good news is that past-due accounts at all three banks dropped from the levels reported for April.

US banks are also keeping a close eye out for the effects of the Cardholders’ Bill of Rights Act, now signed into law. Fitch said it expected minimal immediate effects from the legislation, in large part because US issuers have been preparing for similar regulatory changes by implementing portfolio wide re-pricing initiatives in front of the legislation.

“While the revenue composition will change as a result of the legislation, we expect actual yield generation to remain similar to current levels of around 18 percent as fee structures and pricing components change,” Dean said. “As such, the legislation itself is not expected to impact credit card ABS ratings at this time.”

Fitch expects that along with other actions, card lenders will continue to reduce credit lines and will become more cautious in the granting of new accounts and establishment of initial credit lines. Such actions are likely to fall more heavily on weaker borrowers or those with limited credit histories – the very people the law sought to protect.

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